System # 3: Maiden Claiming and Maiden Special Weight Races
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One of my favorite picks comes from the popular, yet difficult maiden race. Sports betters say this because there’s usually minimal performance statistics to work with in most maiden races and this can cause difficulty picking a winner.
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Have you ever noticed how many maiden races are listed on the daily program at any given track? Have you ever noticed that this is the more common of the daily races? At most racetracks the pick 6 wager usually starts with a maiden race and ends with a maiden race. Some days there may be three to four maiden races on a given program. This makes them important to sports betting enthusiasts.
Sports betters have numerous difficulties finding a winner in a race where some of the horses never ran a race. Some of the horses may be 0 for 20 lifetime in starts, and some have as little as 2, 3 and 4 races under their belts - so to speak. First time starters are hard to gauge, even with solid trainers and owners with above average win percentages. So what do sports betters do? Play the favorite? Play what the sports betting pros are betting? Play your favorite number?
Here’s a simple yet effective system for picking maiden horses.
**** EQUIPMENT CHANGE- BLINKERS ON
** FIRST TIME LASIX (L1)
The equipment change is essential in getting a horse to run correctly. Maiden horses are sometimes nervous or panicky. Blinkers assist in preventing a horse from these symptoms and aid in improving a horse’s race structure. In today’s racing world, most horses run on Lasix. However, look for Lasix that is added to a horse after its first or second outing. The L1 symbol after its name indicates First-Time Lasix. Follow these steps when studying a maiden race. Look at the winning examples posted in the back of this letter titled system # 3.
- Horse gets Blinkers On.
- In the previous race, notice if the horse showed some early speed. The early speed factor must show if the horse was 4th or better after or during the first two points of call….OR…
- Finally, and more importantly; read the short comment; Look for these certain short comments that apply to the “Blinkers on” rule.
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**** Ran greenly
**** Drifted
**** Stumbled
**** Bumped or Checked
These comments place a significant amount of confidence level into the reasoning of why the blinkers are added and this technical maneuver can show racing improvement for the trainer / owner of the entered horse.
If a maiden entry fits this type of study in any given maiden event, this is the horse to play. A good wager on a maiden race is the Win, Place and Show wager. This is a good cover bet considering the unpredictable running form of first time starters that are also entered in these types of races.
In addition too but not limited to your handicap analysis, there are other significant changes from one maiden race to the next that should be noted. Such as a horses workouts….however the top 3 rules to this strategy remain the core particulars to follow.
Important Note:
If a horse gets blinkers added and the short comment states the horse ran greenly…wager on this horse. Regardless of rule two. Rule 1 and Rule 3 together produce winners also.
Handicappers will perform the basic analysis, and a good handicapper will put these additional factors in there proper perspective while analyzing a maiden race.
* Race change; turf to dirt or dirt to turf changes. I know many trainers that make this switch from time to time and their maiden horse ends up in the winners circle. It’s good to track certain trainers and have knowledge of their M.O.
* Distance change from previous race.
* Dropping in class. A trainer may be looking for a range of maiden class where their maiden horse can compete without being outrun.
Wager type: WPS
Win Percentage: When Rules 1, 2 and 3 are applicable a win percentage of 65% has been surveyed over the period of one year. When Rules 1 and 3 are applicable, a 53% win survey was calculated over a one-year period.
Vincent Conti.
